Tree of Life

26 Jul

Overbay Needs to Go! by Jon Pennline

published in category: Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, July 26th, 2011 – 2:50 pm

If you saw last night's game, you witnessed a microcosm of the Pittsburgh Pirates' season and why they're still tied for first place in the NL Central late in July. Despite being outhit 9-5, the Pirates outscored the Braves 3-1 thanks to excellent pitching by James McDonald and the bullpen.

If you watched last night you would notice another aspect that has represented the Pirates' season as well. That aspect is Lyle Overbay doing NOTHING to help the team. As Dejan Kovacevic pointed out on twitter, Overbay did not have to make a play on any ball put in play. Although that is not his fault, it is funny in an ironic way. He picked up a single in last night's game but also hit into a double play, struck out, and was thrown out at third on a terrible base running decision.

When the Pirates signed Overbay to a one year five million dollar contract, they were hoping to get a player who would hit over .260 with 20 home runs while playing above average defense. Instead, he is hitting a putrid .234 with only 7 home runs and below average defense with 8 errors and a handful of missed scoops.

As you may have read from previous posts, I have been hesitant to place pressure on the ownership to make a huge trade due to the high risk of disrupting the immediate future of the franchise. I also did not put a ton of pressure on the organization to call up Pedro Alvarez because I still think he'll struggle hitting on the outer half of the plate.

But Overbay is different. He NEEDS to be designated for assignment. This experiment has gone long enough and the team is competitive despite his efforts at first. There is no excuse for him to be in the starting lineup nearly every night, especially when Matt Hague is batting .318/.377/.467 in AAA for Indianapolis. Even if the Pirates are planning to trade for a first baseman in Carlos Pena/Jason Giambi, do not waste a second more with Lyle Overbay. His production at the plate has been minimal and he offers nothing to benefit the team. He does not hustle, he has a poor approach to the plate in nearly every at bat, and above all, he doesn't get the job done.

With a tough stretch of games this week, there's no room to tinker with Overbay as the first baseman anymore. Stop waiting for him to heat up. At the very least, Matt Hague will produce the same as Overbay but will benefit in his development as a prospect. I'm not questioning the competitive nature of the front office, but if they truly want to win this year, they'll need to move some pieces. The first step should be addition by subtraction; dump Overbay now and try someone else.

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Posted in Pittsburgh Pirates

 

25 Jul

Backwards Thinking: Pirates Fans Irritated at Lack of Moves by Jon Pennline

published in category: Pittsburgh Penguins, Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday, July 25th, 2011 – 8:36 am

After heavily criticizing every trade the Pirates have made since 1992, the Pittsburgh faithful are now screaming for the front office to make a trade in lieu of their fight for first in the NL Central. With some big names available for trade this year, the Pirates have an opportunity to upgrade their major league club before heading into the final stretch of the season. As of today (July 24th), the Pirates have yet to make a move and acquire a big bat or big arm. The "lack of action" from the front office has made fans express their distrust in the organization. However, based on calls from fans on the radio, and the media's usage of twitter as an outlet for frustration, I have seen a few common arguments that seem to lack substance. We can break these down into two categories:

Why the Pirates need to trade.
Why the front office hasn't done anything.
Why the Pirates need to trade
"The Pirates need to go out and trade for Beltran/Pence because he's a big bat and the Pirates need one of those."
I somewhat agree with this statement. The problem isn't the statement itself, but the tone in which it is stated. Fans are going insane right now because Beltran hasn't already played a few games as a Pittsburgh Pirate; as if the deal is so easy to execute. As Tim Williams from Pirates Prospects pointed out earlier today, most deals aren't done until right around the day of the trade deadline (July 31st). The reason? Asking prices go down once the deadline approaches.

"Well whatever, we have the prospects to pull off a trade. Our farm system is stacked with talent!!!"
No it's not, actually. Yes, Neal Huntington and the scouting department have done an excellent job instilling talent into the system over the last three years. However, in comparison to the rest of the league, the farm system is average at best. Baseball America had the Pirates farm system ranked 19th going into this season. Consider how disappointing Zack Von Rosenberg, Stetson Allie, Rudy Owens, Andrew Lambo and Justin Wilson have been, and the farm system looks to be knocked down a peg.

The Pirates are loaded with right-handed pitching prospects but most of them have yet to show anything notable. They are still young, but their uncertainty and rawness blocks them from being used to acquire a player like Carlos Beltran. Plus, part of being a deep organization is having a ton of prospects at each position. I've heard fans calling for a trade that includes Starling Marte because of Gorkys Hernandez's offensive numbers in AAA this season. Unfortunately, one good season in AAA does not make a career out of baseball players. Marte has better all around tools, as explained in my last post, and will be the starting center fielder for years to come in Pittsburgh. Giving him away for a rental seems rather dangerous when you consider the uncertainty of the outfielders behind him in the minors.

As for the asking price for Beltran?

According to Buster Olney of ESPN on twitter, the Mets are in trade talks with the Atlanta Braves and are asking for a combination of Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado and Mike Minor. To give you some perspective, Teheran is one of the top five prospects in the league and the Braves have the second best farm system in the league. The Mets are asking for one of the top prospects as PART of a package deal for Beltran. The equivalent for the Pirates would be along the lines of Jameson Taillon, Stetson Allie, Luis Heredia and Starling Marte.

"Who cares?! We've been losing for 18 years now!"
And? What is the point in selling out for one winning season and jeopardizing the next five years of the franchise? The true talent of this team is still in A ball. We all marvel over the pitching now, but the prospects in the minors have the talent to be even better without using smoke and mirrors. The plan of the organization was not to build a team to win for one season, it was to build a team that was meant to sustain winning, much like the Rays. Trading away your big prospects for this year could lead to more 2010 type seasons in the near future.

"The Penguins added Hossa and it got them to the Stanley Cup! Why wouldn't it work for the Pirates?"
Because the Pirates are not the Penguins. Hockey is not the same as baseball. There are much more parts to a winning baseball team than a winning hockey team. The Penguins have two world class players who contribute both offensively and defensively. If you want a comparison, Andrew McCutchen is equivalent to Marc Andre Fleury because he is one of the best at his position. There are no equivalents to Crosby and Malkin and the Pirates are not one of the top teams in the National League. As much as I love my Buccos, they are still more than one piece away from winning it all.

Why the front office hasn't done anything
"Bob Nutting is so cheap, he has shown when it comes to winning he is not willing to spend money on the team to win."
Bob Nutting has spent more money than anybody (team) in the draft. He's not going to leave a team he's invested in, hang out to dry when they need him most. The players for cash deals are done at the trade deadline. Even if he doesn't spend money at the deadline to acquire a player, the logic that he was too cheap is flawed. It would most assuredly be because the trade would not improve the team. Don't believe me? Look at Gerrit Cole's contract on August 16th. It's time we quit pinning the current owner with the same mistakes/mentality of owners in the past.

"They're waiting for this team to fall out of contention after this coming week against the Braves and Phillies. That way, they can make an excuse for not making a move."
If you truly believe the team will fall out of contention after playing the Braves and Phillies, then maybe this team is more than just one bat away from a World Series team. The Pirates are ranked 23rd in the league in offense and have a pitching staff that is slowly starting to come back down to earth. Even though the pitching staff is ranked 7th in the league, the Braves and Phillies have better pitching. Adding Carlos Beltran would not be enough to push this team to the World Series. Make no mistake, THAT is the goal.

In all of the excitement and more importantly, success of this team, a move should be done. The Pirates could use a bat and maybe another arm in the bullpen. But Neal Huntington's job is tougher than any GM in the league. He has to think about this year while also protecting the assets of the franchise. In addition, since the Pirates have been stuck in 18 years of losing, other teams may be trying to take advantage of their situation to end the drought. By asking for big prospects now, teams are looking to benefit from a desperate Neal Huntington. As I said in an earlier post, I would add Carlos Pena for salary due to their glaring hole at first base. They have a few big bats in their organization who are trying to return. Let them lead the charge since they will have the best chance to be in the lineup when the team is at its best in 2013, 2014 and 2015.

If nothing else, ask yourself this question: Do the Pirates have enough talent to win a World Series this year? If the answer is no then we must continue to be patient and trust that the organization will do what's best for the club.

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Posted in Pittsburgh Penguins, Pittsburgh Pirates

 

21 Jul

Don't Sell the Farm Neal by Jon Pennline

published in category: Pittsburgh Penguins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday, July 21st, 2011 – 8:52 am

With all of the excitement and attention the Pirates have created while contending for first place in the NL Central, fans have been screaming for the team to make a move and bring in a big bat. While I agree, to an extent, some of the players being thrown around in trade rumors are, quite frankly, too expensive.

No, not in a monetary way as Bob Nutting has admitted he will add salary at the deadline, but in terms of talent. Since the Houston Astros are the worst team in baseball, with one of the worst farm systems in the league (26th by Baseball America), they are aggressively shopping Hunter Pence in an attempt to rebuild from the ground up. The asking price for Pence, a 28 year old All-Star outfielder, is obviously quite high. Pence has a line of .315/.356/.478 and a .834 OPS with the Astros this season. He has decent power with a good arm for right field and make no mistake if he was a Pirate, he would definitely improve the lineup. However, acquiring his services would probably mean giving Houston a combination of Starling Marte, Brad Lincoln, Stetson Allie and Tony Sanchez.

Maybe more.

There is a rumor the Astros asked for Jameson Taillon in a straight up trade for Pence. Yeah right. Many may argue that the time to win is NOW and that the Pirates should sell the future for a chance to win a pennant. While that may sound convenient let's remember the Pirates got to this point by acquiring prospects and developing from within. The plan is to win for more than just one or two years; to create sustainability by flooding the system with talented prospects, much like the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays made zero trade moves at the deadline in 2008 and they were playing in a much better division than the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Brewers traded away eight total prospects like Matt Laporta, Jeremy Jeffress and Jake Odorzzio for the likes of CC Sabathia and Zach Greinke. Now, the Brewers have the worst farm system in baseball (30th) and will lose All-Star first baseman Prince Fielder after this year to free agency. If they do not win the NL Central, their investments over the last five years will go up in flames.

With that in mind, I hear people on the radio call in and say things like, "I'm not saying give up some of our big prospects but I wouldn't mind seeing them trade Marte and Sanchez for Carlos Beltran." Hate to break it to you, but Starling Marte is a big prospect. I know some may disagree and say he's nothing more than an above average outfielder who strikes out too much in AA. But keep in mind, Marte is faster than Andrew McCutchen (yes, there is such a player; shocking isn't it?) with similar tools to McCutchen at the plate and in the field. When Marte settles in Pittsburgh, he'll push McCutchen to left field which will allow 'Cutch to focus more on hitting while also keeping him from wearing down. Baseball America used this quote to describe Marte, "One club official unflinchingly calls Marte the best player in the system."

As for the strikeouts?

Marte is 22 years old, playing for the Altoona Curve. In 85 games, he's struck out 71 times. The beloved Hunter Pence struck out 109 times in 136 games. The numbers are comparable and while Marte lacks the power of Hunter Pence, he makes up for it in speed and defensive ability. Add into the mix a strong defensive catcher in Sanchez, as well as a teenage pitcher who throws in the triple digits, at the trade seems a bit absurd. Also, keep in mind this is all speculation, the real asking price could be even higher. The Pirates are trying to break 18 years of futility and since they are buyers, teams will do everything they can to take advantage.

Carlos Beltran is another player on the radar for Pirates fans. However, since the Mets have agreed to pay for his contract in an effort to retain big prospects, the Pirates are faced with the same dilemma as Pence in Houston. Keep in mind, if the Pirates dealt blue chip prospects for Beltran and he didn't lead them to the promise land, they would have given up success in the future for NOTHING. Also, at the age of 34, Beltran is definitely a risk for injury. He has not played over 100 games since 2008 and if injured, his acquisition could make this season go up in smoke as he is a free agent after this year.

Carlos Pena would be the best acquisition for Pittsburgh. The Chicago Cub crushes right-handed pitching with a .893 OPS and would fill a major hole at first base. He won a gold glove in 2008 with the Tampa Bay Rays, a silver slugger in 2007 and he's allegedly a great teammate in the clubhouse. His struggles against lefties could be remedied with Steve Pearce who has a .300 average against left handers this year. Pena's contract is worth five million dollars, although the Pirates would be a little less to acquire him. Shipping off a decent prospect such as Jeff Locke or Gorkys Hernandez would probably be enough.

Remember Pirates fans, this team is competitive due to overachieving pitching, timely hitting and a little luck. This team's best years are still ahead of them if they stay on the right path. With Pedro Alvarez, Ronny Cedeno, Ryan Doumit, Steve Pearce and Jose Tabata all returning, the Pirates have a chance to add a few bats without giving up a single dime or prospect. That may be their best choice of all if the aforementioned players, particularly Alvarez, come back slugging. After all, the Pirates got in this whole first-place mess using the players within their system.

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Posted in Pittsburgh Penguins, Pittsburgh Pirates, Pittsburgh Steelers

 

19 Jul

Pirates Earn National Attention; Will Play on ESPN Monday Night by Jon Pennline

published in category: Pittsburgh Pirates on Tuesday, July 19th, 2011 – 12:52 pm

Breathe it in Pirates fans. Our Buccos will be on national television for the first time since anyone can remember when they take on the Braves next Monday. The move was announced yesterday before the Pirates vs Reds game and it was later reported by Rob Biertempfel that the Pirates may be on FOX in the near future as well.

It is just one of many perks that come with being a first place team after the All-Star Break. The amount of media attention is doubled by the fact that the Pirates have been abysmal for nearly two decades. This year, however, winning has once again proven that it cures all. As much as we all hate seeing the Red Sox, Yankees, Braves and Cardinals on TV every week, ESPN is only going to televise winners (I mean really, who would ever watch the 2010 Pirates outside of Pittsburgh?) Sitting atop the NL Central, six games over .500, the Pirates have earned this spot.

As stated in the previous post, I believe next week's series against the Braves and Phillies could potentially make or break this season. I also believe ESPN saw that potential and decided to "sell high" on the Pirates and put them on national television while they're hanging around first place. If the Pirates beat the Braves and go on to win the series, the network will look like geniuses for promoting an upstart playoff-caliber team as early as late July. If the Pirates collapse next week, ESPN will still have ratings from the excitement of watching a team who, at the time, was looking well on their way to a division title.

Nevertheless, it's hard to complain if you're a Pirates fan. The team has a charismatic manager, a couple all-star caliber players including one of the most exciting players in the game, and a core of young talent surrounding their all-stars. The excitement around this team overshadows the fact that their most talented prospects are still two to three years away from joining the big league club. Now, the rest of the baseball world will have an opportunity to see why the Pittsburgh Pirates have been so successful this year and if the analysts have done their homework, baseball fans will recognize the Pirates will only improve from this year.

Since the game is in Atlanta, the commentators will have to put away their long list of adjectives to describe the beauty of PNC Park. However, be prepared to watch clips of the 1992 NLCS; Jose Lind's error, Sid Bream's slide into home while Barry Bonds' throw comes in three days late will be replayed on your TV.

Please do your best not to throw the remote.

In the meantime, continue to check the sports sites for Pirates' headlines on the front page. Again, they are there because they are winning and they are there because they deserve it. As the winning continues, so will the attention and hopefully, the Pirates will reach a point where they can be on national TV more than once every few decades.

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Posted in Pittsburgh Pirates

 

15 Jul

The Road Ahead: Pirates' Second Half Biggest Challenge Yet by Jon Pennline

published in category: Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, July 15th, 2011 – 11:58 am

The Pirates did their job in the first half of the season, winning series against the bad teams and competing against the good teams. Now that they are four games over .500 at the break, fans, pundits and experts have deemed them contenders for the NL Central division.

And they are.

Now the Pirates will have an opportunity to show the baseball world whether they are contenders or pretenders in the upcoming months. After visiting the Astros on the road, the Pirates play the Reds and Cardinals at home and the Braves and Phillies on the road. The Reds and Cardinals are a combined 46-48 on the road, although injuries, particularly to the Cardinals, have been prominent throughout the season. With Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman healthy, this will be a much better team from what the Pirates saw in early April.

The series against the Braves and Phillies will make or break the season entirely. The Pirates have a four game set in Atlanta before traveling to Philadelphia for a weekend series. Both teams combine for a home record of 62-23 this season. As a Pirates fan, myself, I would be happy with a split in Atlanta and at least one win against the Phillies. With all of the trade speculation circumventing the team as of late, you would have to think the Pirates are going to do a wait-and-see approach to the last week of July before making a big move. If the Pirates manage to go 4-3 or better in that seven game stretch on the road, you would be hard pressed to not see GM Neal Huntington pull the trigger on a trade.

Then again, the schedule doesn't get any easier in August.
After seven games against terrible teams in the Cubs and Padres, the Pirates play the defending World Series Champions on the road, followed by the Brewers on the road where they are 3-36 since 2007. Then it is off to face the Cardinals and Reds before facing the Brewers and the Cardinals four times each. When I saw the schedule back in March, I certainly thought August would be their undoing, if nothing else. My opinion has not changed over the last few months, however, this is the same team that beat the Red Sox and Phillies in earlier series. If they can get through this part of the schedule with their head above water, they'll have a crack at the NL Central.

Down on the Farm
Ross Ohlendorf, in a rehab stint with the Bradenton Marauders, tossed four scoreless innings, surrendering just two hits and striking out three. Ohlendorf is rehabbing from a shoulder injury which has kept him out since mid-April

Pedro Alvarez continues to struggle since his demotion to AAA Indianapolis. The former first round pick went 0-4 last night with three strikeouts. He is now batting .222 with no home runs and two doubles.

Matt Hague, on the other hand, is crushing the ball for Indianapolis. This season, Hague is batting .324 with eight home runs and an OPS of .862. The time has been ticking on Lyle Overbay and if he struggles to start the second half of the season, it may be Hague who replaces him.

Starling Marte is on a bit of a cold streak in AA Altoona. In his last ten games, Marte is hitting .122 with one home run and an OPS of .420. No matter how well he hits, however, he will not be promoted to AAA until he gets a better grasp of the strike zone. Marte's K/BB is 4.85 which is terrible.

Pirates Sign Third Round Pick Alex Dickerson
It was announced, yesterday, the Pirates signed former Indiana outfielder, Alex Dickerson. The 2010 Big Ten Triple Crown winner played outfield for Indiana but projects to be a first baseman. He has pretty good power with the ability to hit for average as well. The only knock on Dickerson is his health. He had back surgery to remove bulging disks when he was still in high school. In 2011, he appeared to suffer similar problems. If he remains healthy, he could be the Pirates' answer to first base. For now, it is too early to project.

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Posted in Pittsburgh Pirates

 

15 Jul

What To Expect From The Pirates Rotation In The Second Half by Jon Anderson

published in category: Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday, July 15th, 2011 – 9:21 am

Everybody knows the story of the Pittsburgh Pirates has been starting pitching this year. The rotation has performed exponentially better than anybody expected, a complete 180 from 2010 when they had the worst ERA in the National League. What I want to do with this post is take a look at what changed from last year to this year in each pitchers "stuff", and see if the improvement in statistics correlates with it. This is going to be gruesome, let's get to it.

For each pitcher, I am going to post their 2010 and 2011 basic numbers a long with some more advanced ones. I will have <a href=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_average_on_balls_in_play>BABIP (batting average on balls in play)</a>, <a href=http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/lob/>LOB% (left on-base percentage)</a>, and GB% (ground ball percentage – simply the percentage of balls batters put in play on the ground off a pitcher).

On my original blog post, I had images of the pitchers charts for the pitches they throw and the movement and velocity on them, however they won't show up on this post, but if you want to read the full post with the images, <a href=http://www.mceffect.com/2011/07/what-to-expect-from-rotation-in-2nd.html>click here</a>.

Basically what we are looking for is change in stuff. If there is no change in stuff, then you have to take into consideration that luck could be a factor in the improvement we have seen. It's not logical to stay the same pitcher and get different results, although it certainly can happen because of the randomness of baseball. Let's see what we can come up with.

Jeff Karstens:

<font size=1>
2010: 26 G, 19 GS, 4.92 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 10.7 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, .309 BABIP, 71% LOB, 42% GB
2011: 19 G, 15 GS, 2.55 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 8.0 H/9, 1.6 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, .240 BABIP, 88% LOB, 44% GB
</font>

Karstens has easily been the biggest surprise of any Pittsburgh Pirate this year. However, in my opinion, he is the most likely to disappoint in the second half of the season. I wrote more extensively about this last week, <a href=http://www.mceffect.com/2011/07/bad-news-about-jeff-karstens.html target=_new>check it out here</a>.Let's face it, the luck numbers are just too alarming. The 88% left on-base percentage is not sustainable, and his BABIP is extremely low for a pitch-to-contact guy. Team that with the fact that he has the same stuff as last year, and your head is left spinning. People say he's been so good this year because his control has been so great and he's mixing his pitches well. I can that his control isn't that much better than last year, because he has only 0.4 less walks per 9 and the same amount of strikeouts as 2010.

The only big difference in pitch selection seems to be that more of his fastballs have been registered as "sinkers", which probably just means a 2-seamer. He's throwing less curveballs this year and his velocity is the same across the board. His 2011 arsenal is too similar to what he had in 2010 to calm my fears, and it just seems to be too much good fortune. Needless to say, I'm worried about Karstens.

Paul Maholm:

<font size=1>
2010: 32 GS, 5.10 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 11.1 H/9, 3.0 BB/9, 5.0 K/9, .327 BABIP, 65% LOB, 51% GB
2011: 19 GS, 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.5 H/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, .252 BABIP, 75% LOB, 59% GB
</font>

Maholm had a very unlucky 2010 season, which makes this year's performance less surprising to me. However, it's still taken most people by surprise. He is striking batters out a little more frequently this year, but it's not substantial. The big thing is that he has been getting more ground balls and has been better with runners on base this year. His BABIP is really low thus far, so he too has been fortunate, but not to the level of Karstens.

His velocity is actually down a little bit while his control numbers are pretty much the same as last year. He's throwing more changeups, which has helped him keep hitters off balance. You can't see it from these numbers, but Maholm has used the inside part of the plate much more this year, which has been huge for him in keeping batters from sitting on pitches. Maholm's improvement seems legitimate, although some regression is likely because of the BABIP and LOB%.

Kevin Correia:

<font size=1>
2010: 26 GS, 5.40 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 4.0 BB/9, 7.1 K/9, .302 BABIP, 68% LOB, 49% GB
2011: 19 GS, 4.01 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.5 H/9, 2.0 BB/9, 4.6 K/9, .283 BABIP, 69% LOB, 46% GB
</font>

The newest Pirate starter has been very good this year at winning ball games. That ability took him to the all-star game. However, when you look at the numbers you see that he is not only not one of the best pitchers in the league, he's not even one of the best on his team. Correia's biggest improvement in 2011 has been the control, reducing his walk average by 2 per 9 innings. However, his strikeouts have come down substantially with that. The BABIP isn't alarming at .283 and neither is the LOB%. However, he is still quite a fly ball pitcher, which doesn't bode well for him over the long haul in the NL Central. He got away with volumes of fly balls in Petco Park, but there's a chance they will start biting him playing in PNC Park. That isn't a huge concern for me, but worth mentioning.

He is throwing sliders a lot less this year than he did last year, which may be affecting his strikeout numbers. The velocity is on track with last year and there isn't much more to say on the stuff side of things. Correia has been very good this year and it seems that 2010 was more unlucky than 2011 has been lucky. I expect to see the same Correia for the rest of the year, if not a better one.

Charlie Morton:

<font size=1>
2010: 17 GS, 7.57 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 12.7 H/9, 2.9 BB/9, 6.7 K/9, .353 BABIP, 53% LOB, 47% GB
2011: 16 GS, 3.80 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 9.9 H/9, 3.5 BB/9, 5.3 K/9, .318 BABIP, 70% LOB, 61% GS
</font>

Morton is probably the toughest guy to figure out in the bunch. He was awful last year, stellar in the month and a half, and then really shaky in his last 4 starts of the first half. You can tell from the numbers above that he has improved a ton in ERA and WHIP, but his walks are up and strikeouts down. The strikeout reduction isn't a surprise, as they were a cost of bringing his ground ball percentage way up, which has helped him a ton. 61% is a really big number for Morton, but not surprising with the sinker he throws. I'd expect that number to be lower than that at the end of the year, but not much. The BABIP is still on the unlucky side despite being a lot better than last year. You have to worry a little bit about the 70% LOB%, but the fact that he keeps the ball on the ground so much only means good things.

As for his stuff, it's all about the 2-seamer. He's throwing it a ridiculous rate but it has ridiculous movement and it's been his key to success. Hitters may be adjusting to it however, so he is going to have to continue to throw other pitches more often. The curveball looks better than last year in terms of movement, so that's a good sign. He has lost some velocity on his 4-seamer, but that's not a concern for me. I don't see Morton being the top of the rotation starter that he looked like for awhile this year, but I do expect him to have no trouble staying in the big leagues and being successful this year, unless there is something more to this arm fatigue thing. <br><br>

James McDonald:

<font size=1>
2010: 11 GS, 3.52 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 3.4 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, .322 BABIP, 72% LOB, 30% GB
2011: 18 GS, 4.42 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 9.6 H/9, 4.5 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, .313 BABIP, 76% LOB, 39% GB
</font>

McDonald is the simplest Pirates starter, and is my favorite of the bunch. He was a big story last year and was expected (by me at least) to lead this rotation. He hasn't done that, in fact he's been the worst one. However, I think he'll be the Pirates best starter in the 2nd half. The problem with J-Mac has been the walks. He is walking more than a batter more per game this year than last, and is striking out a batter and a half less. The BABIP is still high and nothing else is too frightening there. He has got lucky with runners on base and has been saved by his bullpen a few times, but there seems to be more things looking up than down.

The fastball looks very similar to last year, although he is relying on it a little more this year (probably because he has been behind in the count so often). The changeup really hasn't been a significant part of his repertoire this year, and I think he could benefit from throwing it more often. If his control gets better, he will have more freedom to use these pitches and have more wiggle room to speak them around the strike zone, which will bring him closer to the dominant pitcher he showed signs of last year. It all starts with control and efficiency though, that's the key.

So when all is said and done, the story is positive. I have serious worries about Jeff Karstens, but I am confident with the rest of the staff. There has certainly been luck involved in some way with all of these guys, but I see a lot of things that can still be improved as the year progresses. Let me throw in to that there is no doubt that this staff has been helped by improved defense behind them, that cannot be discounted. The Pirates pitching staff has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball, but it's going to stop surprising people eventually in the second half because they are just going to keep on being consistent and winning baseball games.

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Posted in Pittsburgh Pirates

 

14 Jul

GUY JUNKER AND JOHN FEDKO JOIN TRIBLIVE RADIO

published in category: Sports Talk Radio on Thursday, July 14th, 2011 – 12:24 pm

TribLIVE Radio is proud to announce the additions of Guy Junker and John Fedko to our staff. Starting Monday August 1st, Guy Junker will host 10am to 12:30 every weekday joining Ken Laird and John Steigerwald. Then starting in September, John Fedko hosts every Monday 1pm-2pm with John Steigerwald. Fedko will also be a big part of TribLIVE Radio's High School Football Pre-Game show which will air Fridays 4pm-7pm featuring previews of every game in the WPIAL and check-ins live on the scene with Tribune-Review writers from all the big games.

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Posted in Sports Talk Radio

 

11 Jul

First Half Recap by Jon Pennline

published in category: Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday, July 11th, 2011 – 2:17 pm

Here we are! The midpoint of the season is here, the All-Star festivities have commenced and, as usual, the Pirates are 15 games out of first place and 12 games under…wait, what? The Pirates are only 1 game out of first and 4 games over .500?

As surprising as the season has been, it has been equally exciting, entertaining and for the first time in nearly two decades, Pittsburgh fans has a reason to go to Pirates games for more than just fireworks and a concert. The 47-43 record marks the first time the Pirates have had a winning record at the All-Star Break since 1992, their last winning season. The Pirates are also sending 3 All-Stars for the first time since 1990.

Manager Clint Hurdle has been the biggest reason for their turnaround, creating a winning atmosphere by preaching aggressive baseball and blocking players from looking into the putrid past of last year's team. He has benched players such as Ronny Cedeno and Andrew McCutchen for taking plays off. By benching McCutchen, the Pirates franchise player and superstar, Hurdle has shown he will not play favorites and that nobody's job is safe.

The greatest improvement has been in the pitching staff. After having the worst team ERA last year, the Pirates are currently ranked 8th in all of baseball in ERA. Kevin Correia, an All-Star, is the first Pirates pitcher to reach double digit wins since 2009 (Ross Ohlendorf and Zach Duke). Paul Maholm is the only starter with a losing record, however he also is among the bottom of the league in run support. With a 2.69 ERA, Maholm deserves more than a 6-9 record.

Over the first half of the season, the Pirates have been nothing short of theatrical. Lets take a look back on some of the turning points in the season:

April 1st-Opening Day

On a cold, rain soaked day in Wrigley, Neil Walker hit a grand slam and Andrew McCutchen added on with a 2-run homer as the Pirates defeated the Chicago Cubs 6-3 on opening day. The Pirates would go on to win their first road series of the season.

May 18th-21st Stopping the streak

After losing 6 straight games, the Pirates rebounded to win 4 in a row against the Reds and Tigers. The winning streak gave fans their first sign of hope as previous Pirates teams would have tanked after losing 6 straight games. The Pirates finished 13-13 in the month of May.

June 3rd Interstate Showdown

Despite owning the 2nd highest payroll in MLB, the Phillies had their hands full with the Pirates. Jeff Karstens, in what became a breakout game, matched Cole Hamels as both starters went at least 7 innings, surrendering one run a piece. With 2 outs in the 12th inning, Jose Tabata singled off the glove of Chase Utley and Xavier Paul came around to score. The Pirates won 6-3 the following night, taking 2 out of 3 from the Phillies.

June 7th-8th Fight for .500

Down 5-3 in the 8th inning, the Pirates rallied to score 5 runs and defeat Arizona 8-5. Lyle Overbay led the charge with a bases clearing double to give the Pirates the lead. The following night, the Pirates made the push back to .500. After going down 2-1 in the 10th, Neil Walker singled home Andrew McCutchen to keep the team alive. In the bottom of the 12th, Andrew McCutchen led off with a walk off home run to move the Pirates to 30-30.

June 24th-25th Taking Down the Empire

Make no mistake, there is an Evil Empire just as prevalent in Boston as in New York. The Pirates did not care. Maholm pitched 5.1 solid innings and the bullpen did the rest to lock down a 3-1 victory on Friday. On Saturday, Lyle Overbay took a Tim Wakefield knuckleball into the right field seats, putting the Pirates ahead for good. The Pirates failed to sweep the Sox when they committed 4 errors on Sunday's series finale.

July 8th The Fort Comes Through

Down 3-2 in the 8th inning, Josh Harrison singled home Neil Walker to tie the game. Michael McKenry, the mighty mini catcher, smashed an 0-2 breaking ball over the left field wall and ensured the Pirates' first winning record at the All-Star break since 1992.

While the pitching has continued to be successful, the offense has started to come around. Entering Sunday's game against the Cubs, the Pirates had the highest team batting average over the last 10 games. With a tough road trip ahead, the Pirates will need to click on all sides to stay in the race for the NL Central crown. The last week of July includes 4 games against the Braves and 3 against the Phillies. With both series on the road, Hurdle will become a guiding light for this young team. If the Pirates come out of July in contention, they'll have plenty of chances to overtake the NL Central lead. Either way, Pirates fans are FINALLY able to see competitive baseball in the second half of the season.

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